Is This the Turning Point for Consumer Card Use?

Why the Visa/Mastercard Settlement Could Accelerate the Shift to Pay-by-Bank—and Even Digital Currency

A 20-year legal battle between merchants and the card networks is finally breaking open—and with it, potentially the foundation of how Americans pay.

The newly announced Visa/Mastercard settlement loosens the long-standing “honor-all-cards” rule, meaning merchants may soon be able to reject high-fee premium rewards credit cards at checkout. At first glance, it’s a merchant victory. 

But look closer, and it’s something much bigger:

This could mark the beginning of the end of card dominance in U.S. consumer payments.

When acceptance becomes uncertain—and rewards programs become harder to sustain—consumers will naturally migrate to the next most convenient and widely accepted payment path.

For the first time, that path may not be a card at all.

We may be entering a consumer shift toward pay-by-bank and digital currency as mainstream alternatives.

A Crack in the Foundation of Credit-Card Culture

For decades, the value proposition of credit cards has been built on three pillars:

• Always accepted
• Highly rewarding
• Convenient

This settlement disrupts the first pillar entirely.

If merchants begin rejecting premium cards—or surcharge them more aggressively—consumers will quickly feel friction at checkout. Historically, friction forces change. Consumers won’t argue with merchants; they’ll simply choose another way to pay.

This is the moment where alternative payment types gain real traction.

Pay-by-Bank: The Most Immediate Beneficiary

Pay-by-bank (A2A, RTP-based payments, and ACH-based solutions) is positioned to grow rapidly because it aligns incentives across all stakeholders:

Merchants

• Lower cost
• Faster settlement
• Fewer chargebacks

Banks & Fintechs

• Regain relevance in consumer-to-business payments
• Leverage open banking and real-time rails

Consumers

• Already comfortable with Zelle, Venmo, and Cash App
• Increasingly using bank-to-bank payments without even realizing it

If a credit card becomes the risky choice—potentially declined or surcharged—pay-by-bank becomes the default “no surprises” option.

Digital Currency: The Longer-Term Challenger to Card Economics

While pay-by-bank is the immediate shift, digital currencies—especially stablecoins and tokenized bank deposits—represent the next structural phase of post-card payments.

Digital currency matters now because:

• Transaction fees are significantly lower than card interchange
• Settlement is instant or near-instant
• Transparency and programmability create operational advantages
• Regulatory clarity is improving, paving the way for bank participation
• Major ecommerce and global platforms are already piloting digital-currency settlement

As rewards compress and acceptance becomes uncertain, digital currency can step in with speed, cost savings, and innovative merchant-funded rewards models.

How This Settlement Changes Consumer Behavior

Consumers have been conditioned to believe:

“Credit cards are the best way to pay.”

But the settlement disrupts that belief because:

• Rewards may shrink
• Acceptance becomes inconsistent
• Surcharges may increase
• Lower-cost alternatives may be incentivized

Merchants, not networks, may soon be the ones shaping payment behavior:

• “Get 2% off when you pay by bank.”
• “Avoid the surcharge by choosing a low-cost method.”
• “Try our digital wallet option for instant checkout.”

When acceptance, rewards, and cost all shift simultaneously—consumer behavior follows.

What This Means for Financial Institutions

Banks, credit unions, and payments providers must prepare for a world where:

• Card portfolios face pressure

Interchange-funded rewards become difficult to sustain.

• ACH and A2A volume grows

Institutions must modernize risk frameworks, fraud monitoring, and authentication.

• Open banking accelerates

Consumers expect frictionless account connectivity.

• Digital currency enters the mainstream

Institutions must consider stablecoin strategy, wallet integration, or tokenized deposit rails.

• Real-time payments become foundational

Both RTP and FedNow will underpin modern account-to-account ecosystems.

This isn’t just a settlement.

It’s the start of a payments realignment.

How NPG Can Help Financial Institutions Navigate This Strategic Shift

As consumer payment behavior evolves, financial institutions will need forward-looking strategies that balance risk, innovation, and customer experience. This is where NEACH Payments Group can play a critical role. 

NPG partners with banks, credit unions, and third-party processors to assess their digital banking capabilities, evaluate opportunities across pay-by-bank, real-time payments, and emerging digital currency rails, and develop practical roadmaps that position institutions for the multi-rail future. Whether it’s modernizing ACH risk management, strengthening open banking readiness, enhancing fraud-monitoring frameworks, or crafting a comprehensive digital payments strategy tailored to community institutions, NPG provides the expertise, benchmarking, and guidance needed to help organizations adapt with confidence. 

As the payments ecosystem rapidly transforms, NPG ensures institutions aren’t just reacting—they’re preparing to lead.

The Big Picture: A Multi-Rail Future Is Now Inevitable

For decades, the U.S. has been unique among advanced economies for its overwhelming reliance on credit cards. The Visa/Mastercard settlement may go down as the moment that reliance began to unwind.

The future will include:

• Cards (still important but less dominant)
• Pay-by-Bank (fastest-growing alternative)
• Digital Currencies (gaining regulatory and merchant traction)
• Real-Time Payment Networks (fueling modern A2A movement)
• Merchant-funded rewards instead of issuer-funded rewards

When incentives change, behavior changes—and incentives are changing fast.

Final Takeaway

The Visa/Mastercard settlement isn’t simply a legal milestone. It is an inflection point in the U.S. payments ecosystem.

This may be the moment when consumers begin shifting away from credit cards as their primary form of payment and toward pay-by-bank and digital currency rails.

Merchants are ready.

Consumers will adapt.

And financial institutions that prepare now will be best positioned to lead in this new multi-rail future.